A condition gets the blame only when the test fails more often under it than in the control. Testkit checks the gap with Fisher's exact test and corrects for the number of tests, so one test failing by chance among many doesn't count. When chance could explain the gap, the verdict is inconclusive.
A shake turns off the retries your Vitest or Playwright config sets. A test that flakes for another reason, such as a slow third-party API, fails in the control too, and the control's verdict is flaky. For a test that fails only now and then, use --runs 10 or more.